A viral report by Citrini Research titled, The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, has sparked intense debate over the future of the economy. The paper explores a hypothetical doomsday scenario where rapid AI automation triggers mass unemployment and financial instability by 2028. It specifically warns that Indian IT giants like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro are at risk, as their business models face potential destruction from AI-driven automation.
The report pointed out that by 2028, India’s IT services sector, which exported over $200 billion annually, came to a halt as clients started using AI coding agents at a fraction of the cost.
“The entire model was built on one value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. But the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity,” the report stated, adding that as services exports weaken, the rupee falls significantly against the dollar within four months.
“TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027. The rupee fell 18 per cent against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India’s external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun “preliminary discussions” with New Delhi.”
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No Natural Brake
The report stated that the advent of AI created a feedback loop with no natural brake, meaning companies kept investing in the technology, even though people were spending less money.
“AI got better and cheaper. Companies laid off workers, then used the savings to buy more AI capability, which let them lay off more workers. Displaced workers spent less,” it said.
“Companies that sell things to consumers sold fewer of them, weakened, and invested more in AI to protect margins. AI got better and cheaper. A feedback loop with no natural brake.”
The irony in the situation was that companies like NVIDIA and TSM, the key players in AI, kept performing while the economy, which they were disrupting, began deteriorating.
“NVDA was still posting record revenues. TSM was still running at 95 per cent plus utilisation. The hyperscalers were still spending $150-200 billion per quarter on data centre capex. Economies that were purely convex to this trend, like Taiwan and Korea, outperformed massively.”