Less than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump claimed that the US and Iran have had two days of “very good and productive conversations” regarding a complete resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, Tehran’s military command has said, “Do not call your defeat an agreement”, raising question marks on any breakthrough and prolonging global uncertainty over the war in the Middle East.
Al Jazeera has reported that an Iranian military spokesperson has dismissed Trump’s remarks about talks. “Do not call your defeat an agreement. There will be no sign of your investments in the region, nor will you see the previous prices of energy and oil until you understand that stability in the region is guaranteed by the powerful hand of our armed forces. Stability comes through force,” the spokesperson of the joint military command said.
“We clearly declare that no situation will return to the way it was before until we will it. And our first and last words from the very first day have been this – someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you, not now, and not in the future,” he said, adding, “Have your self-entanglements reached the stage where you’re negotiating with yourselves?”
The strong words are consistent with the Iranian authorities’ outright rejections of Trump’s talks claim as “fake news”. In fact, analysts say the US may have realised that it underestimated Iran’s retaliation. Tehran, on the other hand, may not be willing to trust the US easily after it launched airstrikes on February 28 when talks were still on.
What Is Trump Playing At?
Donald Trump said in his Truth Social post yesterday that he has instructed the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. Iran, however, said no talks are taking place.
Later, Trump said that Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others are leading negotiations with Iran. “And the other side, I can tell you they’d like to make a deal, and who wouldn’t? If you were there, look, their navy’s gone, their air force is gone, their communications are done – that’s the biggest problem,” he told reporters at the Oval Office. An Iranian source told CNN that Tehran is ready to listen to “sustainable” proposals to end the war.
In the meantime, US media has reported that the Trump administration is planning to send some 3,000 soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran. The question is: if the US is actively pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough, why the military build-up? A possible explanation could be that Trump is keeping all options open and also using the troop deployment as a pressure tactic to bring Iran, which has taken big hits over the past four weeks, to the talks table.
Pressure Builds On Trump
With Iran holding strong against the combined firepower of the US and Israel, even four weeks into the conflict, Trump appears to have realised that he underestimated Tehran’s resilience.
When the conflict began, there was a perception that neutralising Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would lead to disarray within the Iranian establishment, trigger popular protests against the theocratic regime and lead to a change in guard. That did not happen. Despite the elimination of the Ayatollah or the Supreme Leader, Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps persisted in its all-out counter-attack. And they did something Trump did not see coming.
Tehran targeted US allies among its Arab neighbours in the Gulf. “They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” he said in a rare admission.
The Arab nations had earlier urged the Trump administration not to begin a conflict that threatens their booming economies. And Iran’s reprisals have put the US president in a spot as its allies seek an end to the conflict.
There is pressure at home, too. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump’s approval rating fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House. Trump knows that putting boots on the ground is not his best bet because he promised to stop ‘endless wars’ on his way to the Oval Office.
Israel is not excited about a ceasefire at this point, but Trump knows time is running out. He must end the war and have something to flaunt as a win. But Iran is not making it easy.
Why Iran May Not Agree To US Terms
Multiple reports have said the Trump administration has sent a 15-point list of demands. This list, many say, is largely a rehash of a list Tehran rejected a year ago.
But Iran has been pushed into a corner, and it has survived. And it now has less incentive to stop the conflict now. Instead, it can fight on for a better deal. Tehran has been attacked twice in a year, and it is unlikely to agree to any deal unless it proves a deterrent for a future attack. The Ayatollah has been killed, and the leadership in Tehran cannot be seen as capitulating.
Iran’s blockade has choked the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the global economy and energy security in key markets. So it is now in Tehran’s interest to drag out the conflict and bargain for a better deal that guarantees its security.
But Iran must also find a way out. Over 1,500 people are dead, its cities have suffered heavy damage, and the conflict has pushed inflation up. Also, the rebellion against the regime is brewing.
Al Jazeera has reported that the State has blocked more than 90 million people from accessing the global internet for the 25th day.
“This time, there is not even a word about when the internet might get reconnected. It is not only humiliating, but it is also forcing businesses to close down and inflation to grow,” Al Jazeera reported, quoting a young woman as saying. She runs a small online business of jewellery and accessories.
Iran has executed multiple people over the past week based on national security charges related to last year’s June war and nationwide protests in January, the report said. The authorities have explicitly warned that anyone who protests against the establishment on the streets will be shot and killed as an “enemy”.