ICRA forecasts a moderation in agricultural GVA growth to 4.5% in Q1 FY26, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter, due to mixed sowing patterns. While moong, rice, and maize sowing showed growth, arhar, urad, and soybean lagged. Rainfall patterns and distribution will be critical for crop output, with the IMD predicting above-normal rainfall for August-September.